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For example, a steep increase in oil prices can be a harbinger of a recession.

Not all such credit booms end up in recessions, but when they do, these recessions are often more costly than others.● The unemployment rate almost always jumps and inflation falls slightly because overall demand for goods and services is curtailed. recession—which began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009—was the longest (18 months) and deepest (about a 3.7 percent decline in output) the country has experienced since 1960. Although investment and industrial production fell in every recession, consumption registered a decline in only four out of eight episodes since 1960. Along with the erosion of house and equity values, recessions tend to be associated with turmoil in financial markets. One question sometimes asked is how a recession compares with a depression, especially the Great Depression of the 1930s. It led to a sharp increase in unemployment—along with substantial declines in output, consumption and investment.There is no official definition of recession, but there is general recognition that the term refers to a period of decline in economic activity.

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Indeed, the proportion of time spent in recession—measured by the percentage of quarters a country was in recession over the full sample period—was typically about 10 percent.

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